China's real estate in the first half of 2016 out of the real "the performance of" deep V, soaring house prices, land, capital to accelerate into the real estate industry, even made the financial data in disorder, a sharp increase in the M1 and M1M2 scissors widens to some extent are real estate effect caused by overheating.

However, if you look closely at each index of real estate in recent months, the turning point of the real estate market quietly appears to be something:

First, the real estate investment after the rebound quickly began to fall. Real estate investment rebounded to 7.2% growth in April, and then fell, fell to 7.0% in May, but fell to 6.1% in June, the trend of investment dropped is extremely obvious.

Second, the selling area and the sales will fall. 1 - June, commercial housing sales area of 643.02 million square meters, up 27.9% from a year earlier, faster than 1 - fell 5.3% in May. Commercial housing sales of 4.8682 trillion yuan, an increase of 42.1%, the growth rate dropped by 8.6%.

Third, inflows of capital of the real estate industry. 1 - June, real estate development enterprises in capital of 6.8135 trillion yuan, up 15.6% from a year earlier, faster than 1 - fell 1.2% in May. Among them, the use of foreign capital of 6.6 billion yuan, down 63.2%.

Fourth, 70 large and medium cities housing prices continue to fall, increase the weakness all show hotspot cities housing prices rise. Released on July 18th June 70 large and medium cities housing prices data, a new commodity housing and second-hand housing prices from rising city has 55 and 48 respectively, respectively than fell 5 and 1 month; Decline of city has 10 and 14 respectively, six more than the last month and 1 respectively. New commodity housing prices from rising in 55 cities in 33 cities increase than last month narrowed; Maximum of 4.9%, less than 0.6% last month. Second-hand housing prices from rising 48 cities, there are 21 cities increase than last month narrowed; Maximum of 4.3%, less than 2.0% last month.

If the above four index is only the real estate market, while the second half of the expected subtle change is likely to make the evolution of the above four indicators turning point to become a reality. In after in the first half of soaring house prices, a lot of self living demand and investment demand has got certain release, house prices appear to "break" has become a big probability.

In terms of four bellwether cities, as early as in the second quarter had pulled out of the four major cities or top rankings. Beijing real estate investment and sales fell, commercial housing sales area of 6.576 million square meters, up 14.5% from a year earlier, than in the first quarter fell 9.2%. Among them, the commodity housing sales area of 3.9 million square meters, fell by 18.9%, than the decline of 10.7% in the first quarter, wary of developers of real estate market. As for hefei, nanjing, suzhou, xiamen and other "little tigers" the trend of slow increase is extremely obvious.

Based on the status of the real estate itself as well as for the second half of the Chinese economy and macro policy judgments, the author thinks that:

First, land market after crazy, the first half of the second half of cooling is a big probability, especially in the first half of the "land Kings" lots of situation will not appear again. Second, in the second half of the Chinese economy is facing the international and domestic environment more complex, more uncertainty, including real estate policy, a significant change in major macro policy may be small. Third, the depreciation pressure has not yet been released, this is not a good thing for the real estate market. Fourth, in the first half of the financial data after quarter substantial easing, the second quarter, especially since may, has obvious tightening trend, M2 rose only 11.8%, from 13% of the policy target is 1.2%. Considering the prices of the first half of the cases, the possibility of the second half of the year appear much looser monetary policy is still relatively small. Fifth, still attaches great importance to the "authority" warning about "housing bubble". On May 9, "authority" in the tip of the current Chinese economy faces risks, put "real estate bubble" in the second only to the height of the decline in private investment, and it's the first time a senior explicitly mention the word "bubble".

Want to show is more than five, although the first half of the real estate market in the soaring, but considering the need of steady growth, the second half of the real estate policy may not appear obvious changes. Policy will maintain the previous tone, but will make some adjustment. Policy must be selected in the control foam and to strike a balance between inventory, as well as by supporting policies, accelerate the three or four line to the inventory cycle, also want to prevent housing prices soared during the first half. At the same time, considering the need of the second half of the macroeconomic stability growth, maintain the stability of the real estate market should be a macro policy should have meaning.

This means that the second half of China's real estate policy goals, one is suppressing the property price hikes in line 2 line, 2 it is to speed up the inventory, but need the supporting policies of real gold and silver. Under this kind of policy objectives, the turning point of the real estate market has come, in fact, but due to the lag effect policy turning point, the second half of the real estate the overall return to stability can be quite large. First-tier cities of Beijing and guangzhou will increase to a certain extent, shenzhen, Shanghai, there won't be amazing performance, and the "tigers" will become the points in the second half of the risk, don't suggest that we continue to chase after go up. No performance of the first half of the three or four line city, for the needs of the living can still buy. But from an investment point of view, whether a second line, or three or four line, I don't recommend you try so hard, and in September, according to the temperature of the market.